Janet Du Chenne: Wonderful, thank you very much for these great introductions. So, perhaps a good way to start is with a first question on Covid-19. With more than six months of the Covid-19 pandemic behind us, and many economists saying that the new normal will be different, but never as it was pre-Covid. How do you see this shaping the supply and demand of trade finance?

Russell Brown: Let me pick this one up first, and maybe from an overall high-level business perspective of what we've seen at Deutsche Bank, which I think is a good reflection of what we see in the market. So, we've all seen the disturbing figures that expected a drop of anything between 13% and above 30% of trade flows in 2020. I can certainly say that from the trade finance volumes we've seen so far this year, that it is somewhere in between that.

This has been primarily due to the lockdowns that we've seen globally, so that's affected the underlying trade flows. I would say, in fact, there's probably been a triple whammy in many ways: because we've seen the trade wars, to begin with, especially with China; we've seen the disruption in the commodity sector, and especially with the oil price, very depressed; And then on top of that obviously we've had Covid – which is unprecedented – well definitely in my lifetime, anyway.

But I think we really should put that into perspective though, because since the turn of the century trade flows have trebled. Globally in 2019 it was around US$19trn.. This included the crisis that we saw from 2008 – admittedly it is nothing like the crisis we're seeing today – but I still expect trade flows to continue to steadily increase again over time. And I think trade finance will play an important role, probably more than ever, to drive and support this post-Covid recovery, especially as we’re related to the real economy.

I think, undoubtedly during the following months, maybe years, there's going to be more financial stress on counterparts. But risk mitigation is what trade finance provides. So I think it will be key and come to the fore. I think a different question is, how we operate trade finance, and that's the way I feel that it’s reshaping, but that has been and will continue and I think probably be accelerated to a certain degree due to this crisis.

Janet Du Chenne: Thank you, Russell. And David, what are your thoughts?

David Meynell: Risk is not new to trade finance and Russ was quite right – risk mitigation, it never changes as a core essential for the business. It was even mentioned in the recent Deutsche Bank Guide to Trade Finance that you put out, that the key to fulfilling a successful trade transaction is to understand and mitigate the associated risks. Risk and trust in global trade perhaps go all the way back to medieval times, when the modern bill of lading came into use. Prior to that, merchants used to travel with the merchandise, and no such document was really required.

Moving on to the, I guess the 18th/19th centuries, the bill of lading transformed into a real mitigator of risk, by adding functionality as a document of title. In fact, a court case in the late 19th century described bills of lading as keys to the warehouse. Now obviously many more tools are available these days, but the essence has never changed in that there is a need to understand the deal, assess the risk, decide upon the most appropriate mitigation or mitigators, ensure the documentation is right and be aware of fraud. I do believe that requires skills these days that are far more focused, quite correctly, on compliance, KYC, red flags etc. as well as pure risk mitigation. My final role at Deutsche Bank was working on the product management side, and there was one dictum I heard at the time that is still very relevant these days, which is: In the 21st century, the illiterate is not one who cannot read or write, but one who is unwilling to learn, unlearn and relearn. And I think during the last six months, that has never been so relevant.

Janet Du Chenne: Indeed. Thank you, Dave, and thank you for the history there. It’s good to know that the fundamentals haven't changed. If I can steer us back towards Covid-19, do you think this has actually raised the demand, or awareness of trade finance or not?

David Meynell: Shakespeare wrote that adversity brings out the best in man, and that may well be the case here. It was mentioned in the joint statement released earlier this year by the ICC and the World Health Organisation relating to COVID that, as an immediate priority, businesses should be developing or updating, readying or implementing business continuity plans. But they've always been there, when I was at Deutsche Bank, we had very robust ones. But I know every organisation, due to this pandemic, has had to change things. But what Covid has done has been to bring forward fully into the open something we have always known. One of the big problems with trade is paper. So, accordingly, financial institutions have been forced to focus on how they can continue to provide trade finance in a digital world. This was already happening, but I think it could be argued that the last six months have seen an advancement that normally would have taken three years. So in actual fact the pandemic has actually acted as a catalyst.

Russell Brown: I think from my perspective Janet, I would say in answer to your question of raised awareness of trade finance, even before Covid, trade finance has probably taken a more prominent role in the global banks and I think there's a few reasons for this. I think transaction banking has come to the fore in recent years, and trade finance plays a big part of transaction banking. I think especially with the focus on supply chain and working capital finance as a part of trade finance, I think this has led to trade finance having a more prominent role.

But if we look at the ICC Global Survey 2020, and it's interesting to see that there was a high number of respondents that cited they're expanding their product offering, and market participation within trade finance. So, I think there is a reflection from the market on this – that there is a raised awareness of trade finance. But I think what the crisis has done though, and I think Dave's alluded to this. I think, one, as with any crisis be it political or, as I said a pandemic which is pretty unprecedented, but it always means that trade finance will come to the fore. So, I see again more awareness of trade finance, and I think secondly, it’s accelerated the way we operate within trade finance and consequently the actual efficiencies of it which I think is a good thing as well.